Climate-informed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for northern boreal caribou.

Most research on boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species' range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily affected by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT's Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease in southern and northwestern regions driven by conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests. We do not project that boreal caribou population growth rates will change despite forecasted changes to habitat suitability. Our results emphasize the importance of efforts to protect and restore northern boreal caribou habitat despite climate uncertainty while highlighting expected spatial variations that are important considerations for local people who rely on them. An ability to reproduce previous work, and critical thought when incorporating sources of uncertainty, will be important to refine forecasts, derive management decisions, and improve conservation efficacy for northern species at risk.

PERFICT: A Re-imagined foundation for predictive ecology.

Making predictions from ecological models-and comparing them to data-offers a coherent approach to evaluate model quality, regardless of model complexity or modelling paradigm. To date, our ability to use predictions for developing, validating, updating, integrating and applying models across scientific disciplines while influencing management decisions, policies, and the public has been hampered by disparate perspectives on prediction and inadequately integrated approaches. We present an updated foundation for Predictive Ecology based on seven principles applied to ecological modelling: make frequent Predictions, Evaluate models, make models Reusable, Freely accessible and Interoperable, built within Continuous workflows that are routinely Tested (PERFICT). We outline some benefits of working with these principles: accelerating science; linking with data science; and improving science-policy integration.

State-dependent domicile leaving rates in Anopheles gambiae.

BACKGROUND: Transmission of Plasmodium greatly depends on the foraging behaviour of its mosquito vector (Anopheles spp.). The accessibility of blood hosts and availability of plant sugar (i.e., nectar) sources, together with mosquito energy state, have been shown to modulate blood feeding (and thus biting rates) of anopheline mosquitoes. In this study, the influence of mosquito starvation status and availability of nectar on the decision of female Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes to leave a bed net-protected blood host was examined. METHODS: Two small-scale mesocosm experiments were conducted using female mosquitoes starved for 0, 24 or 48 h, that were released inside a specially constructed hut with mesh-sealed exits and containing a bed net-protected human volunteer. Floral cues were positioned on one side of the hut or the other. Several biologically plausible exponential decay models were developed that characterized the emigration rates of mosquitoes from the huts. These varied from simple random loss to leaving rates dependent upon energy state and time. These model fits were evaluated by examining their fitted parameter estimates and comparing Akaike information criterion. RESULTS: Starved mosquitoes left domiciles at a higher rate than recently fed individuals however, there was no difference between 1- and 2-day-starved mosquitoes. There was also no effect of floral cue placement. The best fitting emigration model was one based on both mosquito energy state and time whereas the worst fitting model was one based on the assumption of constant leaving rates, independent of time and energy state. CONCLUSIONS: The results confirm that mosquito-leaving behaviour is energy-state dependent, and provide some of the first evidence of state-dependent domicile emigration in An. gambiae, which may play a role in malarial transmission dynamics. Employment of simple, first-principle, mechanistic models can be very useful to our understanding of why and how mosquitoes leave domiciles.

On the evolution of omnivory in a community context.

Omnivory is extremely common in animals, yet theory predicts that when given a choice of resources specialization should be favored over being generalist. The evolution of a feeding phenotype involves complex interactions with many factors other than resource choice alone, including environmental heterogeneity, resource quality, availability, and interactions with other organisms. We applied an evolutionary simulation model to examine how ecological conditions shape evolution of feeding phenotypes (e.g., omnivory), by varying the quality and availability (absolute and relative) of plant and animal (prey) resources. Resulting feeding phenotypes were defined by the relative contribution of plants and prey to diets of individuals. We characterized organisms using seven traits that were allowed to evolve freely in different simulated environments, and we asked which traits are important for different feeding phenotypes to evolve among interacting organisms. Carnivores, herbivores, and omnivores all coexisted without any requirement in the model for a synergistic effect of eating plant and animal prey. Omnivores were most prevalent when ratio of plants and animal prey was low, and to a lesser degree, when habitat productivity was high. A key result of the model is that omnivores evolved through many different combinations of trait values and environmental contexts. Specific combinations of traits tended to form emergent trait complexes, and under certain environmental conditions, are expressed as omnivorous feeding phenotypes. The results indicate that relative availabilities of plants and prey (over the quality of resources) determine an individual's feeding class and that feeding phenotypes are often the product of convergent evolution of emergent trait complexes under specific environmental conditions. Foraging outcomes appear to be consequences of degree and type of phenotypic specialization for plant and animal prey, navigation and exploitation of the habitat, reproduction, and interactions with other individuals in a heterogeneous environment. Omnivory should not be treated as a fixed strategy, but instead a pattern of phenotypic expression, emerging from diverse genetic sources and coevolving across a range of ecological contexts.